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School of Business and Management

BFWG research seminar: The Information Content of Trump Tweets and the Currency Market

When: Wednesday, February 9, 2022, 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM
Where: Online, Zoom

Behavioural Finance Working Group research seminar

Host: Prof Gulnur Muradoglu

Guest speaker: Dr Arie Gozluklu, University of Warwick will Present a seminar onThe Information Content of Trump Tweets and the Currency Market’.

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Using textual analysis, we identify the set of Trump tweets that contain information on macroeconomic policy, trade, or exchange rate content.  We find that informative Trump tweets reduce speculative trading in foreign exchange markets, with a corresponding decline in trading volume, volatility, bid-ask spreads, and induce a positive bias in returns reflecting Trump’s (optimistic) views on the U.S. economy. Two-thirds of his informative tweets are optimistic. This bias serves as a diversion strategy from negative media coverage. We rationalize these results within a model of Trump tweets revealing economic content as a public signal that reduces disagreement among speculators.


Guest speaker biography

Arie is an Associate Professor of Finance at WBS and the BSc Accounting and Finance Deputy Course director. He has a PhD in Finance from Bocconi University, Milan. His work focuses on asset pricing and financial markets as well as international finance. His academic papers have been presented in many international conferences (e.g., WFA, AFA EFA), and published in top Finance journals such as Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Financial markets and IMF Economic Review. He also has media comments on NASDAQ Shut-down, multi-asset funds and Yuan devaluation. He obtained British Academy Newton Grant (2018-2020) and International Partnership Fund (2019-2021). He is a Fellow of Higher Education Academy.

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