School of Economics and Finance

No. 669: Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics

Duo Qin , Queen Mary, University of London

July 1, 2010

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This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series statistical methods. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.

J.E.L classification codes: B23

Keywords:Business cycles, NBER, Forecasting