School of Economics and Finance

No. 802: Industrial Interdependence: China 1995-2010

Jose-Miguel Albala-Bertrand , Queen Mary University of London

October 24, 2016

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This paper is a continuation of our study of structural change in China and deals with the changes of domestic industrial/sectoral backward and forward linkages (i.e. the pull and push of the economy) as well as the changes in their domestic and imported components (i.e. via import substitution/penetration) over the 1995-2010 period. We present the results in terms of rates of change for the period as a whole as well as for their yearly evolution over such a period. The main conclusions are that the secondary sector has become the main pull engine of the economy by far, with the tertiary sector also increasing its pull, and that there are three distinctive periods for the evolution of import substitution/penetration, which seem to correspond to both international crises and domestic reform.

J.E.L classification codes: L16, O4, B4, E2

Keywords:China, Industrial structural change, Input-output decomposition, Trajectories over 1995-2010