No. 553: A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy
Duo Qin Queen Mary, University of London Marie Anne Cagas Asian Development Bank (ADB) Geoffrey Ducanes Asian Development Bank (ADB) Xinhua He Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Rui Liu Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Shiguo Liu Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos Asian Development Bank (ADB) Pilipinas Quising Asian Development Bank (ADB)
March 1, 2006
Abstract
This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general→simple dynamic specification approach is adopted. Great efforts have been made to achieve the best possible blend of standard long-run theories, country-specific institutional features and short-run dynamics in data. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.
J.E.L classification codes: C51, E17
Keywords: Macroeconometric model, Chinese economy, Forecasts, Simulations