"Conference revealed the complexities and challenges in achieving global climate goals," writes Dr Fernando Barrio, Reader in Sustainable Business Law and Policy.
To keep global warming to no more than 1.5°C – as called for in the Paris Agreement – emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 28th Conference of the Parties, COP28, held in Dubai, marked a pivotal moment in climate change negotiations with the completion of the first-ever “global stocktake” under the Paris Agreement. Significantly, for the first time in nearly three decades, the COP decision explicitly called out all fossil fuels, urging countries to contribute to a list of goals, including transitioning away from fossil fuels and accelerating action within this critical decade.
A major breakthrough was the launch of a fund to pay for “loss and damage” from climate change impacts, addressing vulnerable countries’ concerns. However, COP28 fell short of enforcing a fossil fuel phase-out or providing sufficient climate finance to support the transition, leaving doubt around achieving ambitious goals.
Nevertheless, the agreement of nearly 200 countries in including the phrase “transition away from fossil fuels”, is likely to have consequences for those planning to expand their oil production, both political and legal, and the UN Climate Secretary seems to be right when affirming in a quasi-Churchill manner, “this outcome is the beginning of the end”.
Another significant outcome was the call for a global tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. This target aligns with the Paris Agreement's objective of curbing global warming but lacks specific numerical targets, raising questions about its implementation. However, expecting specific targets at this level and with many competing interests in dispute, appears, again, unrealistic. The work between COPs and the objective of COP30 is to have those targets in place.
COP28 underscored the importance of the Paris “ratchet mechanism,” which requires countries to continually enhance their climate actions over time. This mechanism is integral to achieving the collective goals set under the Paris Agreement.
The role of AI in climate action
COP28 also focused on technology development and transfer, particularly highlighting the role of artificial intelligence in climate action. The conference recognized the need for sustainable support, financial aid, and capacity-building for developing countries, establishing a technology implementation program to aid in these efforts. The Technology Mechanism, where Queen Mary participates actively as a permanent observer, organised a high level event on AI for Climate Action, and there are ongoing actions to ensure that technology is harnessed with justice and equity in the fight against climate change.
The final text from COP28 emphasized the reduction of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases, particularly methane, by 2030. However, like many other sections, it lacked specific numerical targets. Additionally, the text called for phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that don't address energy poverty or fair and inclusive transitions.
COP28 made strides in establishing a framework for nations to guide their adaptation progress. This development marked a significant advancement for the GGA, which aims to elevate adaptation to the same level of importance as mitigation in the climate process. The themes covered under GGA include water, food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, poverty eradication, and cultural heritage. On the day that 134 countries signed the "COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action", Queen Mary University of London led the organisation of the side event on "Technology, AI and Innovation for Transformative Climate Action in Sustainable Agri-food Systems", which highlighted these issues and proposed ways forward for agri-food complex adaptation.
So, what’s next?
While COP28 marked several achievements, the true "moment of truth" will come in 2025 when countries file their new pledges. These will be critical in determining the effectiveness and commitment of nations towards the goals set out in the Paris Agreement and further elaborated in COP28.
COP28 highlighted the necessity of engaging all stakeholders in the climate conversation. This includes not only those directly affected by climate change but also major emitters, both countries and companies. The outcomes of COP28, while significant, demonstrate the complexities and challenges in achieving global climate goals, especially in terms of financial support and specific actionable targets. As the world moves forward, the focus remains on enhancing cooperation, technology development, and ensuring all voices are heard and accounted for in this critical fight against climate change. We have advocated for a multi-stakeholder governance mechanism for global climate action, and COP after COP the pitfalls seem to be centred around this fundamental issue.
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