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New poll predicts Sadiq Khan on course for victory in London mayoral election

Sadiq Khan is cruising to a convincing victory in the forthcoming mayoral election contest in London, according to an exclusive new poll carried out for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London.

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Sadiq Khan
Sadiq Khan

According to the poll, Khan leads his nearest rival, Shaun Bailey, by 47 per cent to 26 per cent. Whilst Khan’s support is down by four percentage points since the last poll in November 2020, his lead over Bailey, who is poised to suffer the worst defeat of a Conservative candidate since the London mayorality was established, remains intact. After second preferences are taken into account, Khan leads Bailey 66 per cent to 34 per cent.

The figures reveal that support for Khan is strong amongst Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) Londoners, with 63 per cent of BME voters planning to support him, compared to 37 per cent of White voters. 65 per cent of 18-25 year olds intend to vote for Khan compared to only 22 per cent of those over 65. Only 16 per cent of those who voted leave in the EU referendum are intending to vote for Khan. 

Dr Patrick Diamond, Associate Professor in Public Policy at Queen Mary and Director of the Mile End Institute, said: “Sadiq Khan is on course for a convincing victory in the forthcoming mayoral contest. His support is particularly strong within BME communities and among younger voters. However, older voters and those who voted leave in the EU referendum appear far less likely to support him.”  

The poll also found that despite concerns about the Coronavirus pandemic, the majority of voters (55 per cent) intend to vote in person on May 6, while 33 per cent will do so by post.

Londoners have clear views about the priorities for Sadiq Khan if he is successfully elected for a second term. The poll results show that the top three concerns for public investment in London are the National Health Service (63 per cent), housing (58 per cent) and policing (42 per cent). When asked what would help to make London a more ‘liveable city’, respondents highlighted the top priorities were more affordable housing (56 per cent), tackling Anti-Social Behaviour (43 per cent), improving air quality (30 per cent), and building more homes for social rent (24 per cent).

Over half of Londoners (52 per cent) supported the creation of ‘Low Traffic Neighbourhoods’ (LTNs) that reduce the number of motor vehicles on residential streets in London. Opposition to LTNs was significantly higher amongst those who voted for Britain to leave the European Union (51-36 per cent against) compared to those who voted remain (61 to 31 per cent in favour). However, when asked about extending the Congestion Charge zone to cover all of Greater London, there was considerable opposition across all groups surveyed, with 62 per cent of Londoners opposing an extension.

Dr Diamond added: “Sadiq Khan looks set to be re-elected for a second term as London mayor. Attention will inevitably shift to Mr Khan’s agenda and policy priorities. Londoners want to see greater investment in the NHS, housing and policing. To build a more ‘liveable’ London after Covid, they would like more affordable housing and improved air quality through Traffic Free Neighbourhoods. Voters also want concerted action to tackle Anti-Social Behaviour on the city’s streets.” 

More information 

  • All figures are from fieldwork conducted for the Mile End Institute (which should be credited as the commissioner and designer of the survey) by YouGov Plc. Fieldwork was conducted online between 29 March – 1 April 2021. Total sample size was 1,192 adults living in inner and outer London. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all adults in London (aged 18+). YouGov is a member of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.
  • Read more about Queen Mary’s Mile End Institute.
  • Study Politics at Queen Mary.