School of Politics and International Relations

People are unpredictable at predicting what they will do

27 June 2019

Professor Philip Cowley and Professor Tim Bale co-authored an article for The Times about how accurate people are at predicting their own behaviour. The article reads: “Prior to Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK, they surveyed Londoners on their attitudes to the visit. If all of those saying their participation was likely had turned up, attendance at the anti-Trump protests would have involved close to a million Londoners (916,000), in addition to anyone who might have travelled in from outside the capital. Nobody — apart from Mr Trump himself perhaps — is denying that those protests went ahead in June but almost a million Londoners? Hardly.”
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Research into Conservative party membership by Professor Bale was also cited in the Express