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School of Politics and International Relations

Theresa May only stands a 50-50 chance of winning a confidence vote


Theresa May has a 50 per cent chance of winning a leadership challenge vote. Despite these odds, if she wins a confidence vote then it would prevent another leadership challenge for at least a year. Professor Phil Cowley said: “At the moment May is facing a battle on two flanks, one in parliament and the other within her own Conservative Party. If she won the vote of confidence by a big enough margin to carry on, and there has been talk of her winning by around 100, she would be at least able not to have to worry about another challenge from her own MPs.”

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