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School of Politics and International Relations

Poll suggests biggest Conservative majority in three decades

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Professor of Politics, Professor Tim Bale appeared on Bloomberg News to discuss the results of the latest poll predicting the biggest Conservative majority win in more than three decades. Professor Bale said: “Well I think most pollsters would stress that their work is not necessarily predictive it is simply a snapshot of where we are now. However one of the important things about this poll, as you say, is for the very big sample and because it has a big sample it can extrapolate to the results in individual seats using a statistical model called MRP. That means the task of translating vote share into what actually happens in parliament is perhaps better done through this technique than by standard polls.”
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