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Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine - Barts and The London

Improved risk prediction for NHS Lung Health Checks in England

An updated risk model could improve the current test for selecting people from the Targeted Lung Health Checks programme in England who would benefit from lung cancer screening. The programme uses the Liverpool Lung Project risk assessment model, which has now been updated by researchers from the Wolfson Institute in collaboration with colleagues in Liverpool.

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In a paper published in Thorax, the authors present the new version of the model, which has been calibrated to figures for the whole of England for 2017, and to more recently available lung cancer incidence data, with prospective validation in a cohort of 76,000 individuals. The new version improves absolute lung cancer risk prediction and is more suitable for a contemporary country-wide population. There is currently no national screening programme for lung cancer in the UK, but the Targeted Lung Health Checks service is offered in 14 areas of England, with the potential to reach around 600,000 people over four years, detecting approximately 3400 cancers, and saving hundreds of lives.

This work was funded by the Roy Castle Lung Cancer Foundation and the National Institute for Health Research. The original risk model was developed with funding support from CRUK.

Liverpool Lung Project lung cancer risk stratification model: calibration and prospective validation. J K Field, D Vulkan, M P A Davies, S W Duffy, R Gabe.