By Antonio Astolfi
The UK’s popular vote to exit the European Union (EU) after more than 40 years since its accession stands out as a major juncture for the EU, both for its integration process and future enlargement, as much as for its internal power-balance and external global strategy (Whitman, 2019). Although the UK has always acted as the ‘awkward partner’ in European integration, some of the EU’s landmark achievements, such as the establishment of the Single European Market (SM) and the “A 10” eastward enlargement, would have been far-fetched had the UK not exercised its decisive brokering power. In the wake of another snap general election in the UK on the 12th of December, 2019 - whose outcome is as much uncertain as definitive for the future of the country and its relations with the EU – this NEXTEUK Policy Brief aims to offer both a retrospective account of the way in which EU member states (EU27) negotiated Brexit and also provide a forward-looking analysis of their underlying importance for the political future of the EU.
>>Continue reading NEXTEUK Policy paper series - Issue 1 [PDF 2,225KB]
By Roger Liddle
The negotiations on Britain’s future relationship with the EU are on a collision course for failure. To avoid this will require mutual give and take. Principally, the British government needs to climb down from its self-imagined pedestal of Brexit triumph. Economically for the UK, there are huge risks in piling on top of the grave Covid emergency, the negative impacts of ‘no deal’, or a very ‘barebones’ trade deal, which is probably where we are heading. Equally, the success is imperilled of Britain’s future relationship with our European friends and allies beyond Brexit. There has to be a dramatic rethink. It has to start in London, in the office of Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, now.
>> Continue reading NEXTEUK Policy paper series - Issue 2 [PDF 1,430KB]
By Professor John Ryan
The paper examines what may happen if No Deal Brexit becomes a reality. It may not only be a sore awakening for Boris Johnson and his government, but also for the United Kingdom as a whole and its relations with key trading partners. The paper highlights how a No Deal Brexit scenario will complicate the economic and political consequences for Ireland. Having left the EU, the UK is now in the transition period that will last until the end of 2020 and negotiations on a trade agreement with the EU-27 show few signs of progress. Without compromise No Deal is still the most likely outcome. With the global economy in recession and the COVID-19 crisis still not resolved this is bad economic news for both the EU and especially the UK.
This paper outlines how the complex situation around the border on the island of Ireland and concerns among the Irish-American congressional lobby that is worried about the integrity of the Good Friday Agreement would block a UK-US trade deal. Finally, the paper argues nothing will happen quickly on a UK-US trade deal as the US is in the midst of the 2020 US election campaign. So in a hard Brexit/No Deal scenario, Brexiteers who claim that a US-UK trade deal will be the solution or compensation for strained economic relations with the EU are not being realistic, while the UK would find itself isolated from not only one but two of its key allies.
>> Continue reading NEXTEUK Policy paper series - Issue 3 [PDF 1,380KB]
By Dr Agathe Piquet
The paper explores why, in spite of shared mutual operational interests, the EU and the UK have not achieved any major success in the negotiations on police cooperation. It argues that the UK and the EU have diverging views on how to balance those operational interests with legal constraints and frameworks. After introducing the existing mechanisms for police cooperation and the British part in it, the paper analyses the respective positions of the UK then of the EU. This assessment is necessary to identify the stumbling blocks of the EU-UK talks and to discuss the future law enforcement cooperation. Therefore, the future of their security partnership remains very uncertain. It will depend not only on the capacity of both sides to agree on other dimensions of their relationship, but also on the security situation given that exogenous shocks could create some solidarity and facilitate a compromise.
>> Continue reading NEXTEUK Policy Paper Series - Issue 4 [PDF 1,561KB]
By Ms Tinahy Andriamasomanana and Dr Agathe Piquet and with Dr Sarah Wolff
On 12 October 2021, the NEXTEUK project together with the EU-UK Forum organised a high-level policy roundtable gathering leading policy-makers and academics to discuss whether British influence over the EU in post-Brexit times is vanishing or taking new forms and entering new venues. The roundtable tackled three main areas: (i) whether influence has evolved in the context of the new governance structures of the TCA (such as the Joint Partnership Council) (ii) to what extent is scrutiny impacted through the role of inter-parliamentary cooperation and finally (iii) whether the role of British lobbies and civil society has been transformed in Brussels and to what extent their strategies and resources have changed. This policy paper analyses three main themes that have emerged during the discussion: the density of formal and informal institutions, forums and networks to exchange views and ensure mutual influence; the lack of trust at the level of high politics and the highly politized environment deteriorating the UK-EU relations; and the role that institutions could play in normalising the current situation.
>> Continue reading NEXTEUK Policy Paper Series - Issue 5 [PDF 557KB]
By Dr Sarah Wolff and Christian Turner
The CER is delighted to have had evidence accepted for the House of Lords European Affairs Committee’s inquiry on The Future UK-EU Relationship. The evidence submission, published prior to the first summit of the European Political Community, highlights the events that led to the creation of this new format, as well as discussing the intrinsic benefits of the United Kingdom taking part. These benefits focussed on the improving of Anglo-Franco relations, addressing common challenges such as energy and migration, and finally, the opportunity for the UK to shape the EPC to its own interests. It therefore concluded that the UK would be wise to take part, a view that was shared by then Prime Minister Liz Truss.
>> Continue reading European Affairs Committee inquiry [PDF 54KB]