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Brexit: The views from Queen Mary academics

The United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union is one of the biggest political news stories of our time and Queen Mary’s academic experts have featured regularly in the media.

28 May 2019


16 July 2019

Recent polling data and election results paint a picture of woe for Britain's two main political parties. BBC Radio 4 looked to historical precedents for guidance on today's political turmoil and asked if the two parties' decline is now terminal.

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations said: “If we look at the European Parliament elections we never have had a situation where the two main parties in a nationwide contest dropped so low in public estimation. The question really is whether that is a temporary blip caused by Brexit or whether Brexit has completely blown up the party system and made people think that these two parties really are no longer fit for purpose.” Listen here (from 03:27).

8 July 2019

Speaking at the Mile End Institute, Chris Skidmore, the Minister of State for Universities, Science, Research and Innovation, shared his vision for higher education after Brexit. Read more. 

3 July 2019

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations has written a letter to the editor of The Times regarding a recent comment published by Rachel Sylvester. It reads: 

"Sir, Rachel Sylvester (“Tory contest has become a Brexit bidding war”, Comment, Jul 2) is absolutely right to suggest that both candidates vying to become Tory leader are offering a kind of Brexit that only a minority of voters now support — and presumably would have supported had it been proposed by Vote Leave back in 2016.

She is surely also right to suggest that both Mr Hunt and Mr Johnson have moved towards no-deal not because they believe it is genuinely in the best interests of the country but because they believe that their party will otherwise see its support bleed to the Brexit Party.

That calculation is hardly an edifying one, even if it is understandable. Nor is it necessarily correct. Some Tory politicians may not think much of experts, but if those experts are right, then no-deal could have some immediately tangible and very negative consequences for the ordinary working people of this country. The subsequent electoral damage done to the Conservatives — even if their new leader were to manage to shift some of the blame for the harm done on to Brussels — could be far, far worse than any hit to their reputation by their failing to dance to Mr Farage’s seductive tune."

1 July 2019

Research carried out by the Party Members Project - run by professor Tim Bale Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations has been referenced in a BBC news article about the Liberal Democrat leadership contest. The research shows that the average Liberal Democrat member is around 50 years old - younger than the Conservatives and Labour, but not quite as young as the Greens. Read more.

28 June 2019

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International releations has published an opinion piece for The Independent where he argues that there is evidence that post-referendum ‘entryism’ has helped drive the Conservatives into ultra-Brexiteer territory.

He writes: “In short, attitudes on Europe have hardened among rank-and-file Tories; but part of that hardening is due to the fact that some of those with less strident views on the issue may have left the party only to be replaced by Brexiteer-ultras. That, of course, is democracy. But it’s also bloody good news for Boris Johnson – at least until he risks, as prime minister, having to disillusion and disappoint them.” Read more.

Professor Bale also spoke to The Guardian podcast about Conservative party membership (from 31:54).

21 June 2019

In a recent poll of Conservative Party members’ attitudes, 44.5% of those questioned said they had joined after the 2016 EU referendum. Speaking to The Guardian Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations said: "It does seem high, doesn’t it? But you have to remember that it looks as if there has been a surge into the party in recent months, and perhaps really since the referendum itself."

He added that party memberships waxed and waned, although "it’s not altogether surprising given how important Brexit is to many people, and given how many Ukip members may have been former Conservative members who then came home,” he added.

The Financial Times have quoted Queen Mary's recent study on the Conservative Party which showed that an estimated that 97 per cent of the party’s members were white, 71 per cent were male and 44 per cent were 65 or older.

Another YouGov poll showed that in order to ensure Brexit happens, 63 per cent of Conservative party members were prepared to let Scotland leave the UK. Some 59 per cent were prepared to let Northern Ireland go, too.  

18 June 2019

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations has been interviewed for The Atlantic in which he states that those running for leadership of the Conservative Party do not appear to have much in common.

“There is actually very little that separates [the leadership contenders] on the more traditional lines of political conflict. Being close to government and in some cases being in government means that some MPs are rather more realistic, perhaps, than some at the grassroots about the consequences of what some people see as crashing out of the EU."

Professor Bale added that the broader Conservative Party membership “has become completely and utterly obsessed with Brexit to the point that it doesn’t really seem to care about anything else." He also stated that the party membership has gone from "a church, and a broad church at that, into a cult." Read more.

17 June 2019

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations has written an analysis for Foreign Affairs which explores the wider context of the current Conservative Party leadership contest. 

He writes: "May’s failure to pass her deal, along with the House of Commons’ refusal to sanction a “no-deal” Brexit, forced the prime minister to ask for an extension to the two-year process that should have seen the United Kingdom leave the EU on March 29.

"That humiliation, capped by the Brexit Party’s triumph in the European elections, meant that she was done for. May resigned as Conservative leader effective June 7, but will remain as prime minister while the party chooses her successor. That will involve a two-stage process. After MPs whittle down the choice to two, the party’s estimated 160,000 members will pick the winner." Read more.

14 June 2019

Professor Tim Bale's research on politcal party members has been featured in the Financial Times. According to the research there are 160,000 paid members of the Conservative Party, down from a peak of three million in the 1950s. 38 per cent are over 66 years old and two thirds are in favour of a no deal Brexit. Read more.

13 June 2019

Channel Four News interviewed several members of the Conservative Party to understand their views on who should be the next leader. The piece referenced previous research from Queen Mary. Read more.

12 June 2019

Boris Johnson has launched his Conservative Party leadership bid and stated that his preference is not for a no-deal Brexit, despite findings from Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations that shows most of Johnson's supporters back no-deal. Read more.

Boris Johnson is said to be the front-runner to win the leadership contest but the favourite doesn't always make it according to Professor Bale in the Financial Times. "The failure of the frontrunner to win the race is a thread that runs through every Tory leadership contest,” said Professor Bale.

“Why the Tory race is nearly always so much more volatile [compared to Labour] is a really intriguing question,” he added. 

Predictions of a Margaret Thatcher-style landslide for the Tories under Boris Johnson has prompted a row among data experts, according to The Independent

Philip Cowley, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary said that voters are "terrible at predicting their own future behaviour at the best of times [...] Projecting from national opinion polls to constituency results is always tricky [...] When the vote is splitting all over the place as here, it is just bonkers."

10 June 2019

Many Conservatives seem to think Johnson is the best man to deliver Brexit but also to rehabilitate the party and win back supporters. Speaking to Vox, Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations said that the party "looks around at the rest of the field and doesn’t really see someone who has as much name recognition or as much record of winning over Labour voters or as much charisma as Boris Johnson does.

"Now, that doesn’t mean he’s got enough of any of those quantities, but it does give him a big advantage over most of the other candidates in the field," he added. Read more.

31 May 2019

Robert Saunders, a historian at Queen Mary University of London spoke to The Economist about the British Constitution. On why the long years of constitutional stasis came to an end Dr Saunders argued that there were fewer lessons in constitutional instability to learn from. In the 19th century Britons watched countries such as France and the United States tear themselves apart. In the first part of the 20th century, they saw the rise of totalitarianism. They recognised that the delicate British constitution had to be taken seriously. Read more.

28 May 2019

Right-wing parties performed strongly, but not as well as expected in the European Elections and parliamentary majorities are not guaranteed. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Dr Sarah Wolff, Director of the Centre for European Research at Queen Mary said: "One of the potential concrete impacts would be to restrict even more of any kind of common migration policy that the EU might have.

"There are geographical divisions among [nationalist populist] parties, but in general they will want more restrictive migration policies.

"We should consider budget as well. These groups might think that the EU is too expensive, leading to a reduction of the EU's budget for the next couple of years." Read more.

27 May 2019

Following the European Elections, Nigel Farage has said the Brexit Party will demand to have places on the EU negotiating team. He said if his party tops the polls, the “must join”.

Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at the Queen Mary University of London, told HuffPost UK: “It is a complete and utter non-starter. It will be frankly unconstitutional for a party with no MPs and not in government to be involved in a state to state negotiation.

“But it’s an effective soundbite.”

“It will also of course give Nigel Farage an awful lot of legitimacy,” added Professor Bale. “He will be able to say as he did in 2014, that the political organisation he’s leading has not just done well in opinion polls but actually in the opinion poll that matters, i.e. an election.

“That means that he will be taken even more seriously than he already is by broadcasters.”

According to the Daily Mail, if the European Election results were repeated in a General Election, Farage's 31.6 per cent support would give the Brexit Party 446 out of 650 seats in the Commons, under the formula used by Electoral Calculus. That would be a significantly bigger majority than Tony Blair enjoyed in 1997.

However Philip Cowley, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, said that reading across from EU election results to Westminster polls was 'tricky'. He stressed that EU elections often produce very different outcomes.

24 May 2019

Theresa May is to stand down as Prime Minister in June. Speaking to the New York Times, Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London referred to her time in office as “a complete and utter waste, an exercise in futility.” He added that: “She will be seen as one of the worst-performing prime ministers ever to occupy that office. The idea that history will be kinder to her in the long run, I think, is for the birds. It’s something nice that we like to say about people when we feel sorry for them.” Read more.

21 May 2019

Commenting in the Daily Mail on the possible outcome of the pending EU election, Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations said: "There is a possibility that the two main parties could do so badly in this election that people begin to question their fundamental loyalties." 

"It could be that Britain is actually on the way to a much more fragmented, much more volatile kind of party system," he added. Read more.

17 May 2019

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations as said that votes from EU citizens living in the UK could deliver a boost to pro-EU parties in the upcoming elections for the European Parliament "if they can be bothered to come out and vote in what is such a depressing time for them.

Professor Bale also highlighted the generally low turnour of EU elections in the UK. At the last EU election in 2014, turnout was 35%. A turnout of around 40% this time would be "stunning," he said.

14 May 2019

An exclusive opinion poll revealed the scale of the damage being inflicted on both major parties by the Brexit disarray, while the Remain-backing Liberal Democrats and Greens were surging upwards. The Conservatives have plunged to a humiliating fifth place in the capital, backed by just 10 per cent of Londoners in the European elections, the YouGov survey, commissioned by Queen Mary University of London, found. The Greens are ahead of them on 14, while the Lib Dems are on 17.

28 April 2019

The Brexit party and Change UK could learn from political insurgencies that are gatecrashing governments the world over, according to Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations.

Writing in The Observer: "If Brexit continues to blow apart traditional political identities, and if the poor handling of the issue by both main parties continues to alienate even the kernel of their core support, we may well find the UK’s political system is rather less resistant than many imagine to the shock of the new." Read more.

25 April 2019

On Wednesday evening Queen Mary’s Mile End Institute brought together a panel of experts to discuss the issue of white supremacy, its origins and transnational networks in the wake of Brexit. Read more.

18 April 2019

In an interview with The New York Times Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations discussed the state of the Conservative Party and Theresa May's leadership.

"She has really handled these negotiations through a series of slogans that have legitimized attitudes and language that otherwise, I think, would have been kept where they belong," he said.

"In other words, in a box that few responsible politicians would have wanted to open."

16 April 2019

As the European elections draw closer, Dr Stijn van Kessel from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations was interviewed by The Telegraph. He said: "Centrist political groups that have thus far jointly controlled the European Parliament may see their dominant position threatened.

"In a sense this is quite similar to traditional mainstream parties losing strength at the national level. Fragmentation of many European party systems is increasing.

"Issues like the environment and immigration have steadily become more important, and new parties were founded that addressed these issues." Read more.

11 April 2019

In an opinion piece for The New Statesman Dr Robert Saunders from Queen Mary's School of History discusses the public's lack of trust in politicians in the context of Brexit. He writes: "When Nigel Farage hailed the referendum result as a triumph for “real people”, he meant precisely that: Remain voters were recast as elites whose resistance to “the people” must be crushed.

"That fuels an intolerance of dissent, in which minorities must be silenced, not simply outvoted; and it freezes the democratic process at a single moment in June 2016.

"The people, we are told, have spoken; and like a naughty child at a dinner party, they are not to speak again until the feast is over.

"On this model, “the will of the people” is no longer a negotiation within parliament. It is a weapon to be held over it.

"MPs are instructed to deliver “what the people voted for”; but since none of the options before parliament was on the ballot in 2016, clairvoyance becomes a necessary art of government." Read more.

10 April 2019

Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott from Queen Mary's School of Law has written a piece for Prospect Magazine in which she argues that the UK needs a written constitution. She writes: "Brexit has illustrated this very effectively. Should it be so easy to change a constitutional fundamental (EU membership) on the basis of an advisory referendum whose result commanded the support of less than 50 per cent of the franchise?

"A written constitution could contain provisions making its amendment subject to rigorous requirements. We need to codify our constitution to make it fit for today—to clarify its many obscurities, and to ensure the protection of rights both of UK individuals and its nations." Read more.

9 April 2019

Brexiteers have expressed anger over the fact that the Queen has not intervened to break the Brexit deadlock. Although the monarch wields a great deal of power, it is widely known that she takes neutrality on matters of politics extremely seriously. 

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations told I News: "I'm not a betting man but I would bet the proverbial farm on the Queen not intervening in any way, shape or form on such a controversial issue.

"There would be no precedent for such an intervention in modern times and she is too wise a woman to set one now." Read more.

8 April 2019

The New York Times reports that Theresa May is more likely to compromise as she tries to seek support for her Brexit deal. Commenting on the news that Mrs May is to ask the EU for another extension to the Brexit deadline, Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations said: "Presumably, there is some aspect of trying to convince the EU of her good faith in those talks."

"The other game she’s playing,” Professor Bale said, “is to try to prove to everybody outside the country and inside the country that she’s genuinely tried, and therefore the only solution is to back her original deal." Read more.

5 April 2019

Professor Philip Cowley from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations has published an article for the Evening Standard about why the House of Commons is falling apart.

He writes: “A-level politics textbooks used to teach that the Westminster system was known for its stability, with governments able to legislate easily through the discipline displayed by MPs. 

"Instead, we have record-breaking Commons defeats, with the Government forced to allow free votes on matters of key policy. We have front-rank politicians defying their party’s whip yet staying in post; we have MPs breaking away to form parties; while others threaten to vote down their party in votes of confidence.” 

Polling research by Professor Tim Bale was also featured in BBC News. The article reads: “The view of Labour members seems clear. Polling for a project on party membership - led by Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London - was published at the turn of the year. It suggested more than 70 per cent of Labour's members backed a second referendum. And if it were held, nearly nine out of 10 would vote to remain in the EU. But this wasn't a poll of shadow cabinet members. Nine of Jeremy Corbyn's top team are very, very sceptical of - or opposed to - another referendum. And most of these are his political allies.” Read more.

4 April 2019

German newspaper Deutsche Welle, is reporting on Theresa May's latest meetings with the Labour Party and their apparently inability to cash in on Theresa May's handling of the Brexit. Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations said: “I think the key lies in its leader because he has never been a fan of the EU and in some ways is perfectly relaxed about Brexit in contrast to most of Labour's ordinary numbers and most of its MPs.

"But he has control of the party and the direction. And I think his ambivalence to the EU is magnified by the fear of many of those around him as well as particular Labour MPs that being seen to be too pro-EU or pro-Remain will cost the party seats among its old-fashioned core constituency in Leave seats.”

3 April 2019

In a opnion piece written for The Times, Professor Phillip Cowley from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations argues that whilst a general election would be painful, it could solve Brexit.

"Speaking professionally, I want an election about as much as I want to take a cheese grater to my knuckles, but what the votes of the past week have revealed is how an election could be a solution to the impasse — but probably not a solution that most Conservatives will like." Read more.

With the news that Theresa May is to meet Jeremy Corbyn to try to break the Brexit deadlock, Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London was interviewed by The New York Times. He said: “This basically rips up the last two and a half years as far as her stance goes. It seems the calculation has changed, and finally the country’s interests have been put above those of the Conservative Party.” Read more.

31 March 2019

As Theresa May continues to seek support for her Brexit deal, Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations spoke to The Toronto Star about her leadership.

“In any other circumstance, they would have rolled her by now, either formally or informally,” he said. “She’s the default because no one else wants the job.” Read more.

Professor Tim Bale also published an article for The Telegraph where he argued that Brexit threatens to blow the British party system apart. He writes: “If Brexit goes ahead and continues to structure political identities as strongly as it seems to be doing right now, then Labour could well be in big trouble since large numbers of its voters will feel badly let down and could jump ship if a new centrist party can displace the Lib Dems and develop not just a coherent post-Brexit platform but an organizational infrastructure.

"Meanwhile, the Tories, contrary to much conventional wisdom, will probably hang together – partly for fear of hanging separately and partly because we’ve forgotten, absent Europe, how much they all agree on.”

29 March 2019

A Sky News analysis on the European elections has found that populist parties could win almost a third of the seats in the next European Parliament if elections were held this week.

Dr Stijn van Kessel, Lecturer in European Politics at Queen Mary said that the results are partly due to the fragmentation of mainstream parties. "Traditional parties, like the Social Democrats or Christian Democrats, are losing their traditional support, because of economic change and fewer people voting on the basis of religious motivations," he said.

Immigration is likely to feature in the debates across all parties during the election period. Dr Sarah Wolff, Director of the Centre for European Research at Queen Mary said: "A lot of people in these parties would say we shouldn't have refugees that should be able to move [around] - so we should have more strict controls.

"The big risk is that they would advocate for less rights for refugees and migrants and more border controls and more externalisation and co-operation with illegitimate governments in Turkey and Libya."

 

Dr Paul Copeland, Senior Lecturer in Public Policy at Queen Mary reflected upon the consequences of populism for commissioners. He said: "If the commissioners are presented and they are regarded as being too integrationist or too pro-federal, I can see this populist group having some kind of impact. It doesn't need to do much to get [enough] votes to get a blocking majority.

Dr Copeland also added that this could have implications for the EU budget: "The EU can't agree that spending without the [agreement of the] parliament," he said. "Once it's agreed, it can't be touched afterwards. What you could see is populist parties pushing for a reduction in the EU budget, so that it's cheaper for member states to contribute to."

Read the full story.

27 March 2019

As the Brexit deadlock continues Channel 4 News interviewed Lord Peter Hennessy, Attlee Professor of Contemporary British History. Reflecting on the possibility of the Speaker of the House of Commons blocking another vote on Theresa May's deal he said:

"The politics of this and the personalities involved would make it a tremendous showdown [...] It would look very odd to the public if the greatest question of our lifetime, and certainly one that has been pre-occupying us for three years, ever since we entered a strange country called 'Brexitland' where people feel deeply uneasy, could not be resolved because of parliamentary procedure of a particular type.

"If she [Theresa May] get it [her deal] through it will be an element of remarkable stoicism producing a kind of qualified triumph. She has just shown yet again that the European question eats British prime ministers. It ate Mrs Thatcher, that was the trigger of her demise, John Major never recovered from Black Wednesday and it ate David Cameron in one gulp two hours after the referendum result was declared in 2016. It is the great disruptor of our lifetime and it isn't finished yet." 

26 March 2019

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations was interviewed on BBC World Service programme Newsday where he discussed how the uncertainty of Theresa May’s position will affect Brexit.

He said: "I think clearly no government wants to operate with speculation about the person who is supposed to be leading it. It matters in part because it appears that some Brexiteers may be willing to vote for her deal if she offers to sacrifice herself, to say that once its gone through she will stand down as Conservative leader and then give someone else a chance to negotiate the rest of the Brexit process.”

24 March 2019

Writing in The Tablet, Lord Peter Hennessy, Attlee Professor of Contemporary British History at Queen Mary stated thaty Brexit is taking a toll on the UK. "Living in Brexitland is wearing down the country, its parliament and government.

"We must, however, be careful not to treat the accumulated events as a permanent shift of t h e exchange rate in the relationship between the executive and the legislature. A future PM with a substantial majority in parliament and genuine authority among his or her ministerial colleagues would instantly restore the standard relationships of relative power - though the memory of their frisking in the paddock of discontent will linger long among MPs in the House of Commons." 

Read more.

21 March 2019

In an opinion piece written for The Times Professor Phillip Cowley from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations argues that four decades on from the collapse of the Callaghan government, history is repeating itself.

Professor Cowley writes: "Where Callaghan disputed the existence of chaos, the current prime minister actually thinks we are in a crisis.

"The Callaghan government was eventually brought down, on March 28, by a confidence vote in the House of Commons. The trigger was the fall out from a constitutional referendum.

"It was not the first vote of confidence the opposition had moved. The previous two had both failed, just as Labour’s did earlier this year. This time they won, by one vote, and it was to change politics for a generation." Read more.

20 March 2019

The EU has made clear that if the UK wants a longer extension, it will have to take part in the European Parliament elections at the end of May. Dr Sarah Wolff, Lecturer and Director of the Centre for European Research at Queen Mary University of London, argued that without further guarantees on a way forward, the EU has little to gain in granting a long extension or watching the UK take part in the European Parliament elections. 

"The EU has no interest in making it easy to leave the [bloc]. With the rise of populism in the European Parliament, you do not want to give the impression that the EU is a bad negotiator and that you can actually come back to it." Read more.

Speaker John Bercow has thrown the UK's Brexit plans into further confusion by ruling out another vote on the PM's deal unless MPs are given a new motion. Professor Tim Bale spoke to Bloomberg Television about Bercow’s decision. He said: "I think they [the government] must have thought of it, but I suspect they thought the Speaker wouldn’t dare do it because it's such a controversial thing to do. 

"There has been bad blood between this Speaker and the rest of the Conservative Party for quite some time actually, and I think the government probably assumed that this Speaker, although he can be awkward at times, would probably in the end allow the government to do what it wanted to do."

15 March 2019 

Dr Sarah Wolff published an opinion piece for The Independent where she argues that ‘an extraordinary unity of purpose has been a chance for the EU to move on from the global financial crisis and the 2015 migration crisis.’

She writes: "Brexit highlights how European integration has forged a sense of community, identity and freedom that remains remarkably powerful and cannot be taken hostage by national elites. This form of active European citizenry is what Britons are about to lose, and it has helped to harden the European consciousness of it, even in the face of continued and inevitable political challenges. That, oddly enough, will be to Britain’s advantage whichever route it chooses." Read more.

When asked about the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, Tim Bale, Politics Professor at Queen Mary University of London, said: "Almost every conceivable outcome seems just as likely as unlikely! But – best guess – a no-deal Brexit, even though on paper it’s the default outcome seems the most unlikely since around seven or eight out of 10 MPs object to it and the Prime Minister is probably (and many of her Ministers are certainly) opposed to ‘crashing out’ too.

"The short-term disruption would be somewhere between significant and immense – and for no very easily-achievable gain even in the long term." Read more.

Professor Bale also spoke to ABC radio about Brexit. 

14 March 2019

Professor Philip Cowley wrote an article for The Times Red Box about the vote on no-deal Brexit. He writes: "Today’s relaxation of the whip is unlikely to make much difference to the way backbench MPs vote; the last few months have hardly revealed the iron fist of the Conservative whips office. But it will make a big difference to members of the government.

"To have whipped either for or against no deal would have provoked cabinet and other ministerial resignations. That is where its importance lies.". Read more.

13 March 2019 

'Brexit may just have saved Europe – it is only a shame that Britain had to sacrifice itself to do it ' Dr Sarah Wolff published an opinion peice for The Independent. 

Professor Philip Cowley wrote an article for The Times Red Box about the vote on no-deal Brexit.

Professor Tim Bale spoke to ABC News about the latest Brexit vote. He said: “Realistically, I don’t think we are going to be leaving on March the  29th . We have two votes over the next two days, the first one is about no-deal which would involve us ‘crashing’ out of the EU without any arrangements being made and it’s clear that Parliament doesn’t want that to happen, so there will be a vote which presumably will declare that today. Tomorrow there will be a vote where Parliament asks the Government to ask the EU for an extension and everyone is assuming that the EU will grant that extension.”

12 March 2019

Later today, Parliament in the United Kingdom is expected to vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal on the divorce between Britain and the European Union.

On Monday evening, Mrs May said she had received legally binding assurances that the backstop to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic would never be permanent. So is this just talk or has something fundamentally changed?

Tim Bale Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London spoke to the BBC's World Service to give his take on the latest Brexit deal agreement. Listen here.

11 March 2019

How do Brits think the EU sees them? It depends on how old they are according to a survey from Queen Mary University’s Centre for European Research. Read more.

8 March 2019

Dr Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics at Queen Mary, has published a new article in which he explains why calls for Britain to stay and reform the EU from within are misguided in his view. In short: neoliberal policies are locked in, and so is the lock-in. Read the full article.

7 March 2019

Dr Patrick Diamond, Senior Lecturer in Politics at Queen Mary has written a piece for the LSE British Politics and Society blog in which he argues that British social democrats need an improved method for doing politics. He writes: "Little thought has been given to what is a viable national strategy for the UK in the aftermath of departure from the EU. Fundamental questions remain unanswered.

"What is the social democratic view of a fair capitalism, an effective state, a good society? Through what strategy should the centre-left address Britain’s broken system of democracy that produces outcomes so disillusioning for so many citizens? Social democrats need to cease justifying the status quo, becoming a radical movement of ideas again". Read the blog in full.

6 March 2019

Sir Richard Aikens, Visiting Professor at Queen Mary's Centre for Commercial Law Studies (CCLS) has written a joint open letter to The Daily Telegraph highlighting concerns about the Withdrawal Agreement. The letter reads: "It [the agreement] ties us to European  Union rules without any say in drawing them up or any possibility of independent arbitration. The letter was signed by more than 30 signatories.

 

5 March 2019

Brexiteers are vehemently opposed to a second referendum because they fear the decision to leave the EU could be overturned, according to Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University London. Speaking to the Daily Express Professor Bale said a shift in public opinion means Theresa May and pro-Brexit MPs “do not want to risk” a rerun of the 2016 vote.

Professor Bale also said that Brexiteers’ opposition to the Irish border backstop is partly fuelled by the fact Britain did not secure the sort of deal they had hoped for. Read the full story.

3 March 2019

Speaking to Financial News in Germany, Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University London said that there is a threat of a shift to the right if Brexit is cancelled. Read more (German language).

26 February 2019

Jeremy Corbyn has told Labour MPs the party will move to back another referendum if their own proposed Brexit plan is rejected later this week. Speaking to Irish broadcaster RTE, Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University London said: "I still think it is a possibility but not a probability. I still think she [Theresa May] will still get her deal through somehow. I think if that were to happen we would see Theresa May's deal go up against Remain in a referendum.

"I think then it could get very interesting because people will not longer be voting on an abstract like in 2016, they will be voting on an actual deal." Listen to the interview here.

25 February 2019

Irish broadcaster RTE reports that preparations for a no-deal Brexit are underway in the Republic of Ireland. Commenting on the announcement that Theresa May has delayed a vote on her Brexit deal Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University London said: "Theresa May obviously realised she cannot win that vote this time around. She is offering an ultimatum to MPs, it's her deal or no deal."

"There are at least three, four or some say five, cabinet ministers who are absolutely insistent that she must rule out no deal and must do it quickly. Quite what this means, they're not going to lay their jobs on the line and resign, I don't know."

Asked whether the Independent Group could become a new party Professor Bale does see some potential. "Pressure is mounting on Jeremy Corbyn to back a second referendum. It's not just about Brexit though, it's also about anti-semitism and general frustration but Brexit is a big part of it," he added.   

21 February 2019

The breakaway Independent Group created by 11 MPs from both the opposition Labour and ruling Conservative parties threatens to upend the normal rules of politics as divisions over Brexit deepen.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University London, said: "These resignations are a crack in the dam and we might see a trickle, to begin with, but then again dams can burst quite quickly.

"We know both parties are polarised, there is a gap among voters, neither party seems particularly competent and neither is seen as having the national interest at heart - so there is actually a lot of space for politicians who can convince people that they do."

20 February 2019

Three Conservative MPs have defected to the new Independent Group claiming that the Conservative Party had been hijacked by extreme Brexiteers.

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations said the alleged infiltration of the party by former Ukip members was “certainly upping the ante for those Tories who’ve been brave enough to declare their support for Remain and/or a People’s Vote. If deselection looks likely, then why not jump before you’re pushed?”

Read the full story.

18 February 2019

The UK is expected to leave the EU on March 29 and is yet to agree a deal with the bloc on the terms of its withdrawal. Huge questions remain around the terms of its departure, or whether it will even happen, amid calls for a second referendum to halt Brexit after two years of fraught negotiations. The uncertainty continued since last week Theresa May faced another defeat in the House of Commons.

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations commented "For any rational prime minister the latest defeat would probably cause them to think again, but Theresa May is still set in her ways and intent on pursuing the same course as before.

"She seems absolutely wedded to her strategy of running down the clock and presenting MPs with a 'my deal or chaos' ultimatum." Read more.

The decision of the seven MPs to quit may force Labour to confront its position on Brexit. "There are many members of the Labour party that are deeply worried by Jeremy Corbyn's ambivalent stance on Brexit," Professor Tim Bale told CNN. "This may mean there will be more pressure in the Labour party to call for a second referendum, pressure he has so far successfully resisted." Read more.

15 February 2019

The Economist has reported that MPs in both main parties are running scared of deselection. A form of populism, in which the virtuous people rise up against a corrupt elite, has got into both parties, says Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London. 

The virtuous are the grassroots members. In the Conservatives, the role of the corrupt elite is played by those MPs seen to be betraying Brexit. In the Labour Party, it is those MPs who criticise the leader, Jeremy Corbyn. Hard-core Brexiteers in the Tories and Mr Corbyn’s keenest supporters in Labour merrily stoke these feelings. Read more.

13 February 2019

In an interview with the New York Times, Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations commented on the possiblity of a no-deal Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May has been accused of stalling for time when it comes to presenting a revised deal to MPs.

Professor Bale said: "I suspect that there are enough government ministers who are sufficiently worried about the consequences that, at the end of February, they will put their foot down and threaten to walk.

"But it will have to be some pretty high profile people," he added, noting that it was not in the DNA of the pro-Europeans to play hardball. "They are in some senses still seemingly happy to take a knife to a gunfight. They do have to start packing some heat instead of talking a good game."

On Tuesday Theresa May hinted strongly that were she to win a vote for a revised version of her deal, she would cut legislative corners to rush it through Parliament. It could potentially mean a vote just days before Brexit.

"It seems utterly preposterous that we get to a few days to go and no one knows what’s happening, but I do think in some ways that’s Theresa May’s ideal scenario because a lot of members of Parliament would then go for her deal," Professor Bale added.

11 February 2019

Following Donald Tusk’s declaration of a ‘special place in hell’ for Brexiteers without a plan, nearly two thirds of Brits think that the EU has been a harsh negotiator over Brexit, according to a survey from the Centre for European Research at Queen Mary University of London.

Key findings:

  • Overall, 58 per cent of the UK public believe the EU has been harsh towards the UK during Brexit negotiations
  • The survey reveals a large generational divide though. 78 per cent of over 65s believe the EU has been harsh but only 37 per cent of 18-24 year olds and 48 per cent of 25-49 year olds agreed.
  • That generational divide is also obvious when it comes to people’s feelings about the loss of the automatic right to live, work and study in EU countries: 63 per cent of 18-24 think that loss is serious but only 34 per cent of over-65s agree.
  • Nearly two thirds of Brits (62 per cent) believe that people from other European countries now view the UK negatively in the light of Brexit
  • A majority (55 per cent) of the public believe the citizens of other European countries will be pleased to see the UK leave the EU.

Commenting on the survey findings, Dr Sarah Wolff, Director of the Centre for European Research, said: “The Brexit negotiations don’t seem to have done either side any favours, with many British people feeling the EU side has been unduly harsh. But views on the process vary depending on age and, of course, on whether people are Leavers or Remainers. 

“Interestingly, though, even a majority of the latter think the EU will be weakened by the UK’s departure.  That said, only a minority of Brits think Europeans will be sorry to see us go.” Read more.

6 February 2019

Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott from Queen Mary's School of Law has written an opinion piece for Prospect Magazine in which she assess the UK's government's approach to the Brexit negotiations. Is the lesson only to be learned once it is too late? Read more.

5 February 2019

The Centre for European Research at Queen Mary is hosting an event on the challenge of populism in the EU; Why the Centre-right Might be Wrong on the eve of the 2019 European Elections: How do Mainstream Conservatives Handle Europe's Populist Challenge?

Discussions concerning the rise of populist political forces across Europe continue to intensify in the run-up to the European Parliament election which is to take place in May 2019. While populist parties are increasingly gaining momentum throughout the EU, many assert that the centre-right has yet to come up with viable strategies to tackle this challenge. The speakers at the event will aim to answer this and many more questions in what is expected to be a very vibrant debate involving the audience as well.

The event will take place on Monday 11 February 2019. For more details, and to book your place, visit the website.

31 January 2019

Responding to a thread on Twitter from BBC reporter Dan Snow about Brexit, Dr Chris Phillips from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations tweeted: "Spot on. Can people PLEASE stop bringing WWII into the Brexit debate and if they must do, make sure you know your history...."

The original thread was started in response to a contributor on Newsnight who, during a debate on Brexit, stated that the UK liberated France and Belgium during World War II. Dan Snow responded by arguing that Britain did not fight alone.

Dr Georg von Graevenitz, a Lecturer in Quantitative Methods at Queen Mary's School of Business and Management has written a blog asking if the government's Industrial Strategy will deliver in the light of Brexit.

Dr von Graevenitz argues that the government target to increase overall UK investment in R&D from 1.67% of GDP to 2.4% by 2027 is not very ambitious when measured against other comparable countries. He argues that this lack of ambition is likely to affect the future prosperity of people living in the UK. Read more.

29 January 2019

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations posed an open question on Twitter following the announcement that Theresa May was to ask the EU to re-open negotiations concerning the so-called backstop.

Professor Bale tweeted: "Can anyone explain to me why a collective entity like the EU, knowing it still has at 2 years + of negotiations still to come with the UK, is going to fold on the Backstop, thereby confirming that it will always fold under pressure and sell out a member state at the last gasp?"

25 January 2019

Professor Philip Cowley from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations has written a letter to The Times on the issue of the franchise in any fresh Brexit referendum. He wrote: "It pains me to disagree with such a distinguished former chairman of Queen Mary’s Council as Sir Nicholas Montagu (letter, Jan 24) but on the issue of the franchise in any fresh Brexit referendum he could not be more wrong.

"There may well be valid arguments for holding such a referendum. There may even be a general case for enfranchising 16 and 17-year-olds. Neither case especially convinces me, but the arguments are not without some merit. What there is not, however, is any case for fighting a second referendum using a different franchise from that of the first. As it is, in the event of any new vote, many of those who voted Leave in 2016 will understandably feel the political establishment are ignoring them. There cannot, in addition, be any suspicion that the establishment has put its thumb on the scales."

Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott from Queen Mary's School of Law published an article for Prospect Magazine in which she argues that a Sovereignty Act would reaffirm the power of the UK parliament. She writes: “Such legislation [Sovereignty Act] could enable citizens to bring an action in UK courts on the basis that EU law undermined UK constitutional rights. UK courts could refer the matter to the European Court of Justice, but the UK parliament could have the final say in determining if UK or EU law should be applied, thus counterbalancing any claims of an unelected judiciary having too much power.” Read more.

24 January 2019

On 22 January 2019, Dr Davor Jancic, Lecturer in the Law Department, took part in the expert roundtable in the House of Lords EU Select Committee. His contribution was invited within the framework of the Committee’s examination of the post-Brexit UK-EU interinstitutional relations.

Dr Jancic advised committee members on the challenges and avenues for Westminster’s future influence on EU institutions and the joint bodies likely to be set up after Brexit. He also spoke on the interparliamentary mechanisms for dialogue and scrutiny that should underpin UK-EU relations after Brexit.

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations has written a blog for Involve, a UK-based public participation charity, in which he discussed political party membership.

He writes: "Survey after survey has demonstrated that Labour members want to remain in Europe and, more recently, are overwhelmingly in favour of a referendum to help bring an end to Brexit.  If Labour’s leadership, in its anxiety not to upset Leave voters, continues to maintain its studied ambivalence on the issue, then it risks effectively proving the cynics correct, thereby ensuring that what many have hailed as a renaissance of grassroots participation party politics ends up as a nail in its coffin." Read more. 

22 January 2019

The UK is increasingly polarized by Brexit identities and they seem to have become stronger than party identities, according to a new academic report in which several academics from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations contributed to.

The report, Brexit and public opinion 2019, by The UK in a Changing Europe, provides an authoritative, comprehensive and up-to-date guide to public opinion on each of the key issues around Brexit.

Only one in 16 people did not have a Brexit identity, while more than one in five said they had no party identity. Sir John Curtice’s latest analysis of public opinion on a further referendum finds there has been no decisive shift in favour of another referendum.

Professor Philip Cowley's work focused on the views of MPs. According to his research MPs who voted leave are overwhelmingly likely to think the process of Brexit has highlighted divisions that were already present in society. 78 per cent of Leave-voting MPs subscribed to this view.

Those who voted Remain, on the other hand, have a far more mixed perspective: 52 per cent think the principal effect of Brexit was that existing divisions were exposed, but 39 per cent think that the creation of new division has been the more important outcome.

Professor Tim Bale, Professor Paul Webb (University of Sussex) and Dr Monica Poletti contributed to a chapter on the views of political party members. They found that 82 per cent of Conservative Party members were opposed to holding another referendum if Mrs May’s deal couldn’t get parliamentary approval, while 79 per cent of Labour members wanted to see another vote held.

They argue that the current situation could profoundly shake up the existing party system. If Brexit isn’t delivered to the satisfaction of Conservatives, then there may soon be a lot of very unhappy Conservative Party members looking for a new home. Yet if it is, and Jeremy Corbyn is seen by his rank and file to have enabled it, then the same might be true for Labour party members too. 

Valsamis Mitsilegas, Professor of European Criminal Law and Global Security at Queen Mary, was interviewed on Estonian television about Brexit. He said: “Different MP’s have different preferences. Some of them have a preference for what is called a Norway plus agreement which means that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union but will remain part of the customs union and the single market. Some of them of them have preference for a second referendum but of course the issue with the second referendum is that we have a second stage of discussions to see what the questions on the ballot paper will be.”

20 January 2019

Dr Robert Saunders, Senior Lecturer in Modern British History looks back at the 1975 referendum on the UK's membership of the European Economic Community in a piece for BBC History Magazine. He considers what can be learned from that first referendum. Read more.

19 January 2019

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations has written an opinion piece in the Evening Standard in which he argues that Theresa May should reflect on history when it comes handling rebellions from her MPs. He wrote: "Mrs May opened this week’s debate on the meaningful vote by begging MPs to think about “when the history books are written”. She should do so, too.

"By reaching out beyond her party she can secure an agreement that makes far more sense for the future of the country than the deal Parliament has so resoundingly rejected. If some Tory MPs, blinded by ideology and imperial nostalgia, cannot see that, then the PM should let them go. A truly 21st-century Conservative Party could very well be better off without them. Read more

18 January 2019

Dr Sarah Wolff, Director of the Centre for European Research was interviews by Radio Canada on 15 January. In her view the defeat of Theresa May's Brexit deal in Parliament marks the beginning of the end of Brexit. She argued that the most possible scenario is that Theresa May requests more time to the EU to find a domestic solution. She explained that the options left were becoming increasingly limited but that from the perspective of Europeans, while they might agree to give more time to the UK, their objective would be to pressure the UK government to find a solution before the European elections. 

Dr Wolff believe that Europeans will continue to remain united and will not re-open the divorce deal. "This is an existential issue for European integration. The EU cannot facilitate the departure of one of its members," she said. Regarding the personal responsibility of Theresa May in this vote, she asserts that it was a collective responsibility. "British politicians, including Jeremy Corbyn, decided to impose incompatible red lines for themselves in their negotiations with Brussels," added Dr Wolff. She explained that it is not possible to claim to 'regain control' and to send polish immigrants back home while continuing to trade with Europe and to have peace in Northern Ireland. Listen to the interview here.

17 January 2019

Following the defeat of Theresa May's Brexit deal by 432 votes to 202, Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations was interviewed by the Chicago Tribute. He believes that May is unlikely to get changes to her deal that could "placate her Brexiteers." An alternative could be that she turns to the opposition and "reaches out to Labour and goes for a softer Brexit thanmost Brexiteers would contemplate."

Speaking to the Associated Press Professor Bale said that most leaders who had suffered a defeat on this scale would be “either resigning or looking to trash the deal that they’d got and do something utterly different.” May, however, has proven stubbornly resistant to changing her Brexit “red lines.” “It looks as if we’re just going to get more of the same and that she’ll come back in a week or so’s time with nothing substantially different from what we’ve got now,” Bale said.

In an interview with The New York Times, Professor Bale also discussed the dilemma facing centre-left parties in Europe more generally, as well as the UK Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn is loath to reverse Brexit and anger working-class Labour voters who opted to leave. But the Labour activists who powered his unlikely leadership bid are putting enormous pressure on him to do just that. Professor Bale said: "If you look around Europe, center-left parties are facing a dilemma. How do they maintain or even get back an electoral coalition of workers and middle-class, more educated voters?”

Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott from Queen Mary's School of Law published an article for Prospect magazine on what happens next after the Government's defeat after the vote on the Brexit deal. She writes: “Even the constitutional position is unclear, given that the British Constitution is not codified, but made up in part of a host of constitutional conventions, procedures and practices, very often arcane, recondite and difficult to track down—and then, so often not legally enforceable but malleable, allowing for flexibility and manoeuvre. This is why there has been so much argument and debate over recent decisions taken by the speaker John Bercow, as to whether certain amendments should be allowed.”

16 January 2019

Drawing on the latest polling data, Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations has written an opinion piece for The Conversation exploring whether a so-called 'Norway option' would break the Brexit stalemate.

Professor Bale writes: "It looks as if possibly nearly two-thirds of voters, and almost certainly a majority of them, could probably live with Norway-plus. But before its advocates get too excited, they need to heed what may be one enormous, crucial caveat.

"Our survey noted that Norway-plus involved staying in the customs union and the single market. However, it did not remind voters that the latter would mean continuing to allow EU citizens the unfettered right to live and work in the UK. Were it to be made clear to the public that Norway-plus did not mean they could “take back control” of Britain’s borders, their reaction might well be very, very different." Read more.

Dr Sarah Wolff, Director of the Centre for European Research at Queen Mary provided her own analysis. She tweeted: "This is the beginning of the end of #Brexit, May is likely to survive the motion of no confidence and the Europeans won't renegotiate anything."

In an opinion piece for The Times, Professor Philip Cowley from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations argues that proportionally the Brexit rebellion beats the previous vote on the Iraq war.

Professor Cowley wrote: "This wasn’t a minor piece of policy either. This was the central piece of government policy; if not quite the only thing the government is currently doing, it is not far off. And it went down like the Hindenburg.

"It is a somewhat banal observation to make that, under normal circumstances, the prime minister would have resigned following such a defeat. But under normal circumstances, no party leader, knowing that such a stonking defeat was likely, would have pushed the issue to a vote.

"This is all – to borrow a phrase used here occasionally – not normal." Read more.

15 January 2019

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations explores the reasons why people support and oppose Theresa May's Brexit deal in a joint piece for YouGov. Those who oppose the deal say they do so mainly because they either never wanted Brexit in the first place or because they’re convinced it’s a bad deal, often because they feel it doesn’t deliver the hard Brexit they’d ideally like. 

As for those who support it, few actually think it’s a good deal. The rest are prepared to live with it because at least it means we’re leaving or because it’s the best deal on offer – or because, ultimately, it’s better than no deal. Read more.

14 January 2019

Theresa May is reported to be facing defeat in parliament over her Brexit deal. If this is the case, where does it rank in terms of all-time parliamentary flops? Professor Philip Cowley from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations provided a historical analysis in The Economist. His list measures the number of votes against the government by its own MPs, rather than the size of the overall defeat (indeed, in four of his top five revolts, the government won with support from the opposition). Read more.  

13 January 2019

Writing in The Sunday Times, Professor Phillip Cowley commented on John Bercow's performance as Speaker in the House of Commons. According to Professor Cowley: "Soon after he became Speaker in 2009, John Bercow asked his key advisers to identify ways in which he could use his position to strengthen the House of Commons and make life more difficult for the government.

"One reform identified was to allow more urgent questions, dragging ministers to the chamber in a way his predecessors had never done. Many ministers hated it, but Bercow saw this as the greatest impact made by his speakership.

"His actions last week and in the days ahead may turn out to mark an even more important shift in the relationship between the executive and the legislature." Read more.

11 January 2019

More than 100 Tory MPs spoke out against Theresa May's Brexit deal before Christmas, and since then only two have publicly changed tack. Commenting in the Daily Mirror ahead of the parliamentary vote, Professor Phillip Cowley from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations said that the biggest post-war defeat for a prime minister was by 89 votes in 1979. Before that Mrs May must look back to 1924, which is one of only three examples of a government losing by more than 100 votes.

10 January 2019

Seventy per cent of MPs think Theresa May has done a poor job of negotiating Brexit – and more Conservative MPs think she has done a bad (47%) than a good job (34%), a new survey of MPs has found.

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations said: “None of this will make easy reading for the PM: the attitudes of Leave-voting Tories appear to be hardening rather than softening and they seem amazingly unfazed by the difficulties presented by both the Irish border issue and a No-Deal Brexit.”

9 January 2019

Nearly three quarters of MPs think Theresa May has done a poor job of negotiating Brexit according to a survey from The UK in a Changing Europe and the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London. Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary: "None of this will make easy reading for the Prime Minister. The attitudes of Leave-voting Tories appear to be hardening rather than softening and they seem amazingly unfazed by the difficulties presented by both the Irish border issue and a No-Deal Brexit." Read more.  

Dr Robert Saunders published an opinion piece for The Guardian where he argues that ‘with a disorderly Brexit on the horizon, a timely lesson in humility may be fast approaching’. He writes: “The liberation that Britain so urgently needs is not from Brussels, but from its own illusions. A lesson in humility may be fast approaching – but a disorderly Brexit would be a cruel teacher. As so often, it will not be the worst delinquents who pay the highest price.” Read more.

Dr Lee Jones, Reader in International Politics at Queen Mary, was amongst 15 academics to write to The Guardian letters arguing that universities do not need to fear a no-deal Brexit. The letter reads: “The idea that whole countries should be forced into political servitude in order to qualify for academic or scientific mutual exchange is ridiculous, illogical and completely without evidence. No country has ever had to accept this from the EU before. The first major act of the May government was to pledge to support a Swiss-style payment into mutual academic research programmes, which answers the Russell Group’s funding complaints.” Read more.

4 January 2019

More than half of Conservative party members want Theresa May’s Brexit deal to be rejected in favour of leaving the EU with no deal, according to further polling released from Queen Mary's ESRC-sponsored Party Members Project

If a new referendum were called with the options of leaving without a deal, staying in the EU or leaving with May’s deal, 57 per cent of Conservative Party members preferred leaving without a deal. Only 23 per cent of members said they would vote for May’s deal in a three-way referendum.

If there was a two-option referendum with no deal or May’s deal, just 29 per cent of members would vote for May’s deal, compared with 64 per cent who would vote to leave the EU without a deal.

“If Theresa May is hoping that her MPs will return to Westminster having been persuaded by their constituency associations to back her Brexit deal, she’s going to be disappointed.

“It appears that those members are in no mood for compromise. Moreover, the Tory rank and file, it seems, are convinced that no deal is better than May’s deal,” said Professor Tim Bale, from Queen Mary’s School of Politics and International Relations. Read more.

2 January 2019

Labour members want Jeremy Corbyn to back a second referendum according to latest figures from Queen Mary's ESRC-sponsored Party Members Project. The survey of Labour’s grassroots clearly shows that Corbyn’s apparent willingness to see the UK leave the EU – a stance he has recently reiterated – is seriously at odds with what the overwhelming majority of Labour’s members want, and it doesn’t reflect the views of most Labour voters either. Read more.

18 December 2018

In a letter to the editor of the Evening Standard Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary’s School of Politics and International Relations argues that so-called 'Snowflake Brexiteers' should expect "a bit of name-calling." The full letter, listed below, can also be viewed here, along with the editor's response.

"STICKS and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me." How many times did we hear that from our parents when we were children? Yet strangely, that sage advice seems to have passed some Europhobic Tories by. They are apparently outraged at being called nasty names by some of the bigger boys in the Westminster playground, including the Chancellor himself [“Tory party ‘risks splitting’ as storm rages over Hammond’s extremist Brexiteers jibe”, December 14].

It is surely pretty rich of them to complain, given their constant sniping at colleagues who, instead of flouncing off in a huff as soon as things don’t go their way, have been doing their damnedest to pull off the near-impossible trick of delivering a Brexit that will “take back control” of the UK’s borders without trashing the economy or re-establishing a hard border in Ireland.

Anyway, this sort of rough and tumble is hardly without precedent in Conservative Party history. One only has to go back to the Nineties to recall some of the invective heaped on Tory PM John Major by those opposed to the Maastricht Treaty, many of whom had never forgiven him for replacing their political pin-up, Margaret Thatcher. No wonder the normally mild-mannered Mr Major got caught calling them “bastards”.

But “bastards” was a badge sceptics wore with honour. Their successors should stop being so sensitive.

17 December 2018

After two years of bickering, confusion and uncivil war over what Brexit should look like, and as it has become clear that the version approved by the EU and May’s cabinet has little chance of passing Parliament, more and more Brits are wondering whether a second “people’s vote” might be the only thing to break the impasse.

Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary’s School of Politics and International Relations gave an interview to The New York Times where he discussed the prospect of a second referendum. He said: "I didn’t think it very likely, but now I’m beginning to wonder if it’s the only exit out of a burning building."

Dr Lee Jones, a Reader in International Politics at Queen Mary made an appearance on TRT World where he discussed the various options that Theresa May might choose. "At this late stage you really have three choices," he said. "You either endorse the deal that she put on the table, which I think is highly problematic, or you stay in the European Union and cancel Brexit altogether, which I think would be disastrous democratically, or you prepare for an exit without a withdrawal agreement. Those are the choices, there is no more time left to go back to Europe to renegotiate." Watch the full interview here.

Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott from Queen Mary's School of Law wrote an opinion piece for Prospect Magazine in which she wrote about the UK Supreme Court decision on the legality of the Scottish Continuity Bill adopted by the Scottish parliament back in March, and its compatibility with the UK EU Withdrawal Act (EUWA) which became law in June 2018. 

Professor Douglas-Scott argues that devolved authorities feel their interests have not been taken seriously. In the EU referendum, the UK as whole voted Leave. However, the vote was split by many things, including geographical location and cultural background. Sixty-two per cent of Scotland’s voting electorate voted Remain, and the Scottish government remains opposed to Brexit. Yet, unlike federal states, devolved nations have no legal means of ensuring their different perspectives and needs are taken into account. The United Kingdom is a 'disunited kingdom' and Brexit illustrates this very clearly according to Professor Douglas-Scott.

10 December 2018

In an opinion piece for The Times, Professor Philip Cowley from Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations explores what could happen should Theresa May’s government face defeat in the forthcoming Brexit vote in the House of Commons. He argues that the government could suffer the largest backbench rebellion in modern British politics tomorrow — and the largest Commons defeat for at least a century. 

Theresa May enjoys no majority and has next to no support from across the floor of the House, and so if — as everyone expects — the government is defeated tomorrow, the next useful comparison is the scale of that defeat.

Professor Cowley argues that while governments are occasionally defeated in the Commons, they are rarely heavily defeated. If, as is widely believed, the government is looking at a defeat by more than a hundred votes, that will be something that has only happened three times in the last hundred years.

In another opinion piece, Dr Davor Jancic from Queen Mary's School of Law argues that changes to the EU withdrawal bill represent a mini victory for the UK but one which is fragile due to its uncertain compatibility with EU law.

From February to November 2018, the draft withdrawal agreement saw a number of important changes. One of the most striking ones concerns dispute resolution. Throughout Brexit negotiations, the EU was adamant to maintain the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), while the UK insisted on ending it. The latest version replaces the ECJ with arbitration under the auspices of the Permanent Court of Arbitration.

According to Dr Jancic, this is a significant concession by Michel Barnier, and an important diplomatic triumph for Theresa May, who has repeatedly argued that disputes cannot be resolved by the court of either party, and for Boris Johnson, who has vocally advocated the option of arbitration.

3 December 2018

Speaking on the BBC's The Week in Parliament programme, Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary’s School of Politics and International Relations discussed the upcoming parliamentary vote on the EU Withdrawal Bill. Professor Bale said: "I think its [the vote] is a measure of strength from the various factions in the House of Commons. The eventual result does matter in the sense that it will give us all a clue as to how possible it will be for Theresa May to pass the Withdrawal Bill on the second attempt. I think we are already assuming that this first attempt won't make any difference.  

"For the government it gives her another chance to tell to the country the Withdrawal Bill. After all it will feature in the news headlines every night for five days. If she can make some good arguments, and get her colleagues to make some good arguments for the Withdrawal Bill, perhaps that will help her in what is effectively a long-term war of attrition. It's not about just the run-up to December 11th, it's what happens after that and possibly going into January," he added.

23 November 2018

In an opinion piece written for The Guardian, Tim Bale, Professor of Politics in Queen Mary’s School of Politics and International Relations, asserts that the power of hard-line Brexiteers should not be underestimated.

Professor Bale said: “No one should allow the recent failures of Messrs Rees-Mogg and Baker to muster the famous 48 letters required to trigger a no-confidence vote in May to fool them into thinking that Conservative Euro-fanatics are and always have been merely a phantom army.

“Maybe once upon a time that was the case, and maybe they’ve never been quite as numerous as they, and their equally obsessive media cheerleaders, have liked to suggest. But, with the Tory press on their side, with Ukip waiting in the wings, with constituency associations and even their less fanatical parliamentary colleagues growing ever more hostile to the EU, and – most importantly – with the maths as tight as it’s often been, they haven’t really needed to be. And that remains as true right now as it has been in the past.”

In an interview with The New York Times, Professor Bale also commented on Rees-Mogg’s decision to make public his letter of no-confidence in Theresa May’s leadership, describing it as ‘highly unusual’. Professor Bale said: “You used to be able to rely on Tory MPs to be broadly loyal. I think now you have a bunch of people who are actually prepared to die in a ditch for an idea or a principle, and that is a big, big change.”

Deal or no deal?

Dr Stijn van Kessel, Lecturer in European Politics in Queen Mary’s School of Politics and International Relations was interviewed on BBC Radio London about the EU’s perspective on a future Brexit agreement. Dr van Kessel said: “There’s no general mood that the UK should be punished. It’s actually a widespread mood of regret that Brexit is happening and a realisation that it’s no good for any side really – that’s the dominant attitude at least.

“Radical right parties that are generally very Eurosceptic do not really make this a big issue and Brexit is not seen as a means to fuel their own Euroscepticism. There’s a widespread desire that it is best if we just move on with it and make the divorce as orderly as possible,” he added.

The effects of Brexit on mental and physical health

Commenting on a recent study for CNN which reported a rise in the number of antidepressants prescribed in England after the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, Kamaldeep Bhui CBE, Professor of Cultural Psychiatry & Epidemiology at Queen Mary said: “The study mainly looked at antidepressant prescriptions, which is not a perfect method to measure mental health. Antidepressant monitoring data is not very accurate, and there are many reasons people may take such drugs.

“But the study is an important signal and politicians need to be more careful about decision-making, and how it affects people’s health. There is a link between Brexit and health and it’s worth thinking about.

“A fragmenting society brings health problems which affect everybody, because people feel less supported when communities break down. The acrimony sparked by Brexit risks increased rates of distress, anxiety, depression and related issues, leading to excessive use of alcohol and perhaps even unhealthy eating behaviours and obesity.

“The vote to leave the EU was, in part, an expression of growing right-wing extremism and discrimination in the UK. This causes higher levels of fear, anxiety and depression among ethnic minorities at the receiving end of racism and intolerance.

“People who experience racism and discrimination have higher levels of poor mental health. They also have high blood pressure, more physical health problems and the stress produces all sorts of changes in the body, including triggering immune responses that may explain poorer mental and physical health.

“The extremists themselves are also at risk of suffering mental health problems, as they are dealing with a lot of anger, frustration and conflict, all contributing to dissatisfaction and poor mental health,” he added.

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Paul Jordan
Faculty Communications Manager (HSS)
email: p.jordan@qmul.ac.uk