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School of Mathematical Sciences

Dr Jamie Griffin


Lecturer in Applied Probability

Telephone: +44 (0)20 7882 3648
Room Number: Mathematical Sciences Building, Room: B26
Office Hours: Tuesday 11.30 - 13.30


Jamie Griffin is a Lecturer in Applied Probability. His main research area is modelling malaria transmission and control. This research has involved synthesising multiple types of data to be able to make predictions of the impact of interventions in reducing malaria transmission. He has advised policymakers at the WHO on a number of questions covering vaccines and other interventions against malaria. He has also worked on more general problems of statistical inference for infectious diseases.

Before joining Queen Mary, he held an MRC Methodology fellowship at Imperial College. He continues to collaborate with the malaria modelling group there. He also collaborates with a number of staff in the Malaria Centre at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.



  • Walker PGT, Cairns M, Slater H et al. (2020). Modelling the incremental benefit of introducing malaria screening strategies to antenatal care in Africa Nature Communications.
  • Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I et al. (2020). Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
  • Bretscher MT, Dahal P, Griffin J et al. (2020). The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: A meta-analysis of individual patient data BMC Medicine.
  • Sherrard-Smith E, Skarp JE, Beale AD et al. (2019). Mosquito feeding behavior and how it influences residual malaria transmission across Africa Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
  • Sherrard-Smith E, Griffin JT, Winskill P et al. (2018). Systematic review of indoor residual spray efficacy and effectiveness against Plasmodium falciparum in Africa Nature Communications.
  • Hogan AB, Winskill P, Verity R et al. (2018). Modelling population-level impact to inform target product profiles for childhood malaria vaccines BMC Medicine.
  • Watson OJ, Routledge I, Griffin JT et al. (2018). Predictive Malaria Epidemiology, Models of Malaria Control Interventions and Elimination journal.
  • Winskill P, Slater HC, Griffin JT et al. (2017). The US President's Malaria Initiative, Plasmodium falciparum transmission and mortality: A modelling study PLoS Medicine.
  • Bretscher MT, Griffin JT, Ghani AC et al. (2017). Modelling the benefits of long-acting or transmission-blocking drugs for reducing Plasmodium falciparum transmission by case management or by mass treatment Malaria Journal.
  • Okell LC, Griffin JT, Roper C (2017). Mapping sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria in infected humans and in parasite populations in Africa Scientific Reports.
  • Patouillard E, Griffin J, Bhatt S et al. (2017). Global investment targets for malaria control and elimination between 2016 and 2030 BMJ Global Health.
  • Winskill P, Walker PGT, Griffin JT et al. (2017). Modelling the cost-effectiveness of introducing the RTS,S malaria vaccine relative to scaling up other malaria interventions in sub-Saharan Africa BMJ Global Health.
  • Churcher TS, Sinden RE, Edwards NJ et al. (2017). Probability of Transmission of Malaria from Mosquito to Human Is Regulated by Mosquito Parasite Density in Naïve and Vaccinated Hosts PLOS Pathogens.
  • Churcher TS, Lissenden N, Griffin JT et al. (2016). The impact of pyrethroid resistance on the efficacy and effectiveness of bednets for malaria control in Africa. eLife.
  • Griffin JT (2016). Is a reproduction number of one a threshold for Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination? Malaria Journal.
  • Walker PG, Griffin JT, Ferguson NM et al. (2016). Estimating the most efficient allocation of interventions to achieve reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria burden and transmission in Africa: a modelling study. The Lancet Global Health.
  • Marshall JM, Touré M, Ouédraogo AL et al. (2016). Key traveller groups of relevance to spatial malaria transmission: a survey of movement patterns in four sub-Saharan African countries. Malaria Journal.
  • Penny MA, Verity R, Bever CA et al. (2016). Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: A systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models The Lancet.
  • Griffin JT, Bhatt S, Sinka ME et al. (2016). Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases.
  • Slater HC, Griffin JT, Ghani AC et al. (2016). Assessing the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa Malaria Journal.
  • White MT, Verity R, Griffin JT et al. (2015). Immunogenicity of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine and implications for duration of vaccine efficacy: Secondary analysis of data from a phase 3 randomised controlled trial The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
  • Van Den Hoogen LL, Griffin JT, Cook J et al. (2015). Serology describes a profile of declining malaria transmission in Farafenni, the Gambia Malaria Journal.
  • Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Cameron E et al. (2015). The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015 Nature.
  • Cameron E, Battle KE, Bhatt S et al. (2015). Defining the relationship between infection prevalence and clinical incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria Nature Communications.
  • Cairns ME, Walker PGT, Okell LC et al. (2015). Seasonality in malaria transmission: Implications for case-management with long-acting artemisinin combination therapy in sub-Saharan Africa Malaria Journal.
  • Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Reyburn H et al. (2015). Gradual acquisition of immunity to severe malaria with increasing exposure Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society.
  • Griffin JT (2015). The interaction between seasonality and pulsed interventions against malaria in their effects on the reproduction number. PLoS Comput Biol.
  • Walker PGT, White MT, Griffin JT et al. (2015). Malaria morbidity and mortality in Ebola-affected countries caused by decreased health-care capacity, and the potential effect of mitigation strategies: A modelling analysis The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
  • White MT, Griffin JT, Akpogheneta O et al. (2014). Dynamics of the antibody response to Plasmodium falciparum infection in African children Journal of Infectious Diseases.
  • Bretscher MT, Griffin JT, Hugo P et al. (2014). A comparison of the duration of post-treatment protection of artemether-lumefantrine, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and artesunate-amodiaquine for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria Malaria Journal.
  • Pinsent A, Read JM, Griffin JT et al. (2014). Risk factors for UK Plasmodium falciparum cases Malaria Journal.
  • White MT, Bejon P, Olotu A et al. (2014). A combined analysis of immunogenicity, antibody kinetics and vaccine efficacy from phase 2 trials of the RTS,S malaria vaccine BMC Medicine.
  • Griffin JT, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC (2014). Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa Nature Communications.
  • Okell LC, Cairns M, Griffin JT et al. (2014). Contrasting benefits of different artemisinin combination therapies as first-line malaria treatments using model-based cost-effectiveness analysis Nature Communications.
  • White MT, Griffin JT, Ghani AC (2013). The design and statistical power of treatment re-infection studies of the association between pre-erythrocytic immunity and infection with Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Journal.
  • White MT, Bejon P, Olotu A et al. (2013). The Relationship between RTS,S Vaccine-Induced Antibodies, CD4+ T Cell Responses and Protection against Plasmodium falciparum Infection PLoS ONE.
  • Walker PGT, Griffin JT, Cairns M et al. (2013). A model of parity-dependent immunity to placental malaria Nature Communications.
  • Bousema T, Stevenson J, Baidjoe A et al. (2013). The impact of hotspot-targeted interventions on malaria transmission: Study protocol for a cluster-randomized controlled trial Trials.
  • Okell LC, Bousema T, Griffin JT et al. (2012). Factors determining the occurrence of submicroscopic malaria infections and their relevance for control Nature Communications.
  • Bousema T, Griffin JT, Sauerwein RW et al. (2012). Hitting hotspots: Spatial targeting of malaria for control and elimination PLoS Medicine.
  • Opatowski L, Fraser C, Griffin J et al. (2011). Transmission characteristics of the 2009 h1n1 influenza pandemic: Comparison of 8 southern hemisphere countries PLoS Pathogens.
  • White MT, Griffin JT, Churcher TS et al. (2011). Modelling the impact of vector control interventions on Anopheles gambiae population dynamics Parasites and Vectors.
  • Okell LC, Griffin JT, Kleinschmidt I et al. (2011). The potential contribution of mass treatment to the control of plasmodium falciparum malaria PLoS ONE.
  • Griffin JT, Garske T, Ghani AC et al. (2011). Joint estimation of the basic reproduction number and generation time parameters for infectious disease outbreaks Biostatistics.
  • White MT, Griffin JT, Riley EM et al. (2011). Efficacy model for antibody-mediated pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccines Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
  • Griffin JT, Cairns M, Ghani AC et al. (2010). Protective efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants (IPTi) using sulfadoxine- pyrimethamine and parasite resistance PLoS ONE.
  • Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Okell LC et al. (2010). Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: A model-based evaluation of intervention strategies PLoS Medicine.
  • Carneiro I, Roca-Feltrer A, Griffin JT et al. (2010). Age-patterns of malaria vary with severity, transmission intensity and seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and pooled analysis PLoS ONE.
  • White MT, Griffin JT, Drakeley CJ et al. (2010). Heterogeneity in malaria exposure and vaccine response: implications for the interpretation of vaccine efficacy trials. Malaria journal.
  • Bousema T, Okell L, Shekalaghe S et al. (2010). Revisiting the circulation time of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes: molecular detection methods to estimate the duration of gametocyte carriage and the effect of gametocytocidal drugs. Malaria journal.
  • Ghani A, Baguelin M, Griffin J et al. (2009). The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom. PLoS Curr.
  • Stewart L, Gosling R, Griffin J et al. (2009). Rapid assessment of malaria transmission using age-specific sero-conversion rates PLoS ONE.
  • Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S et al. (2009). Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings Science.
  • Baggaley RF, Griffin JT, Chapman R et al. (2009). Estimating the public health impact of the effect of herpes simplex virus suppressive therapy on plasma HIV-1 viral load AIDS.
  • Ghani AC, Sutherland CJ, Riley EM et al. (2009). Loss of population levels of immunity to malaria as a result of exposure-reducing interventions: Consequences for interpretation of disease trends PLoS ONE.
  • Corran PH, Cook J, Lynch C et al. (2008). Dried blood spots as a source of anti-malarial antibodies for epidemiological studies Malaria Journal.
  • Gras L, Kesselring AM, Griffin JT et al. (2007). CD4 cell counts of 800 cells/mm3 or greater after 7 years of highly active antiretroviral therapy are feasible in most patients starting with 350 cells/mm3 or greater Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes.
  • Griffin JT, Fraser C, Gras L et al. (2006). The effect on treatment comparisons of different measurement frequencies in human immunodeficiency virus observational databases American Journal of Epidemiology.
  • Fidler S, Fraser C, Fox J et al. (2006). Comparative potency of three antiretroviral therapy regimes in primary HIV infection AIDS.
  • Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Cox DR et al. (2005). Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease American Journal of Epidemiology.